Polish employers give +7% rating for employment sentiment
While Poland is not in the top half of the 43 countries surveyed when it comes to future employment sentiment for Q3, the results are still positive – especially in construction and manufacturing
Employers in Poland cautiously optimistic about hiring plans
A net employment growth of +7%, with seasonal adjustment factored in, is forecast for Poland in the third quarter, according to a study by HR company Manpower Group of a representative sample of 607 employers in Poland who were each asked the question: “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2021 as compared to the current quarter?” Net employment forecast is calculated as the difference between the percentage of companies planning to increase employment and those planning to cut jobs.
Employers in Poland declare moderately optimistic plans for employment in the period from July to September. As many as 11% who participated in the survey plan to increase employment, 2% expect to reduce employment, and 84% see no change. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in comparison with the prior quarter, and improve by 14% when compared with the third quarter of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic first had an impact on hiring sentiment.
Employers in six of the seven industry sectors expect to hire during the forthcoming quarter. The strongest hiring prospects are reported by employers in the construction sector and the manufacturing sector, with net employment outlooks standing at +15% and +13% respectively. Restaurant & hotel sector employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans with an outlook of +10%, while the wholesale & retail trade sector outlook is +8%. A conservative hiring pace is forecast for the ‘other services’ sector (social & public, transport, storage & communications), where the outlook is +7%, and the ‘other production’ sector (mining & quarrying, electricity, gas & water supply, agriculture, hunting, forestry & fishing) outlook is +4%. However, finance & business services sector employers report uncertain hiring plans with an outlook of -1%.
Internationally, Poland is not as high as one might expect, coming more or less at the top of the bottom third of countries when it comes to employment-growth sentiment. The USA is top with a net employment outlook of +25%, followed by Taiwan with +23%, Australia with +17% and Greece with +15%. At the bottom end of the scale, Hong Kong is at 0%, and South Africa, Panama and Argentina are at +1%. Significantly, no country posts a negative forecast. Alongside Poland, at +7%, are Brazil, India, Italy, Slovakia and Turkey.
The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 55 years and the latest edition is based on interviews with over 45,000 public and private employers across 43 countries and territories.
Cashflow the biggest challenge for SMEs
Three in four Polish microfirms and small & medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have some form of financial cushion, with 42% saying they have enough cash to survive for one to three months, according to debt database KRD (Krajowy Rejestr Długów). Every fifth firm participating in the survey said its cash flow would suffice for half a year. “A financial cushion that three-quarters of companies in the SME sector have is really good news for the economy,” said KRD head Adam Łącki. Still, half of respondents see maintaining financial liquidity as their greatest challenge, reports Puls Biznesu.
KRD Economic Information Bureau, as it calls itself in English, operates pursuant to the Act on Disclosure of Economic Information and Exchange of Economic Data. Established in 2003 KRD provides an economic information exchange system which consolidates all the branches of the economy.
Government publishes 2022 economic forecasts
The government expects Poland’s GDP growth in 2022 to reach 4.3%, and the average annual inflation to be 2.8%, according to the draft state budget for 2022 published on 8 June by the Government Information Centre (Centrum Informacyjne Rządu). This forecast does not take into account the impact on the economy of the projects proposed by the government as part of the Polish Deal programme. “We assume that in 2021 there will be a rebound in economic activity, and its scale – in absolute terms – will be higher than the decline recorded last year and will amount to 3.8%,” it said in a statement.
The government anticipates that private consumption will increase by 4.3% in 2021 and by 4.4% in 2022, and the real increase in public consumption in 2021 and 2022 will be 3.4% and 3.7% respectively. It expects the registered unemployment rate to drop to 6.0%. at the end of 2021 and 5.8% by the end of 2022. The press release also states that exports are expected to grow at a rate of 8.8% in 2021 and 7.3% in 2022. The growth rate of imports in 2021-2022 is expected to be 9.4% and 7.8% in 2021 and 2022 respectively. All information according to the Polish Press Agency (PAP).
Cash still popular in Poland but cashless transactions growing fast
Cash is still the most common method of making payments in Poland, according to Adam Glapiński, the head of the National Bank of Poland, as reported by money.pl. Last year as many as 98% of Poles used banknotes and coins, while 76% used contactless cards. “Although cashless payments are becoming more and more popular each year, it does not mean that cash is pushed out of the market,” Glapiński said, also stating that the share of cash transactions as a share of total payment transactions was 46% last year. Interestingly, he noted, in 2020 a total of about 900 ATMs were taken out of operation.
May demand for housing loans reaches historic high
Banks and credit unions sent inquiries to the credit information bureau (BIK – Bureau Informacji Kredytowej) for housing loans totalling 91.5% in May 2021, according to Rzeczpospolita (rp.pl). In May 2021, a total of 47,610 applications were made for housing loans, compared to 28,680 a year earlier – an increase of 66%. However, compared to April the figure is lower by 6.5%. The average value of the requested loan was PLN 320,940, higher by 15.3% than in May 2020. “The total value of the loan application amounts is record-breaking, both in terms of the number of applicants and the amount of the loan applied for,” says Prof. Waldemar Rogowski, chief analyst of BIK. “The increase of the average amount of the requested loans to a record amount of over PLN 321,000 , reflects the current situation on the housing market… and the purchase of larger real estate,” he continued, adding that the increase in the number of vaccinated people makes Poles more optimistic about the future.
The rising prices of homes and apartments, Professor Rogowski said, are down to several factors which include rising inflation, increase in labour costs and construction materials, and the lack of investment alternatives. Demand comes from three main groups, he continued. The first group includes individual buyers who plan to purchase real estate for their own needs, while the second group includes individual investors purchasing for rent or those focused on price increases. The third group consists of large institutional investors who buy for investment purposes, he explained.
Poles earned over USD 200 million on bitcoin last year
Chainalysis data shows that Poles earned over USD 200 mln on bitcoin trading in 2020, putting the country in 21st place in the world, just behind Australia and India, as reported by Polish mainstream daily business publication Rzeczpospolita (rp.pl). Among those ahead of Poland in terms of bitcoin dealings are Czechia, whose inhabitants earned USD 281 mln in 2020, and Ukraine, with a profit of around USD 400 mln. The highest earnings on bitcoin were achieved by Americans – by as much as USD 4.1 bn. The Chinese were second with earnings of USD 1.1 bn, followed by the Japanese with approximately USD 900 mln. Next were Great Britain (approx. USD 800 mln), Russia (approx. USD 600 mln), Germany (approx. USD 600 mln), France (approx. USD 600 mln), Spain (approx. USD 400 mln) and South Korea (approx. USD 400 mln).