Polish big data company forecasts COVID-19 peak

Modelling from Polish data science company ExMetrix has forecast that Poland will reach a peak of approximately 9,000 COVID-19 infections around 20 April. The figure roughly aligns with the 10,000 cases that Health Minister Łukasz Szumowski had forewarned on 10 March during an interview with TVN24.

The data scientists from ExMetrix predict that the worst period will occur over the coming week from 28 March to 08 April with the daily rate to reach 400 new cases. But after that period, the company reports that the rate should begin to slow down and by 15 April the number of new cases should drop considerably.

The big data company from Kraków, which focuses on economic and social forecasting, uses AI technology to build its epidemic models based on data generated around five key areas: the current progress of the pandemic in various countries, meteorological factors, the state of the health care system in each country, the general level of health in society (e.g. the prevalence of diabetes, obesity, cancer and cardiological diseases), age demographics and the quarantine measures deployed by the authorities as well as the level of compliance by the public. In particular, the data team analysed the rate of transmission in countries such as China, South Korea and Japan to develop its models.

“Our models predict a milder epidemic than western and southern Europe,” says Zbigniew Łukoś, CEO of ExMetrix. “For this to happen, a social effort is needed to comply with the introduced restrictions and limitations, especially because the ExMetrix models forecast that we are entering a key phase of the epidemic.”

Image source: ExMetrix Sp. z o.o.

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